St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2021-11-04 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 56.2%

STL: 43.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.09

STL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

SJS

A. Hill

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	A. Hill	28	23	5	82.1%	3.76	2	-1.24
STL	Joel Hofer	26	23	3	88.5%	2.09	0	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • SJS at home vs STL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	STL
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	STL
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	SJS
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL
2024-11-21	STL 3 - 2 SJS	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	16	0	1.09
1	STL	9	0	0.57
2	SJS	14	0	0.77
2	STL	15	0	0.70
3	SJS	8	0	0.24
3	STL	16	2	2.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2