Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-11-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 54.0%

DET: 46.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.02

DET: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

BUF

D. Tokarski

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	33	29	4	87.9%	3.37	3	-0.63
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	32	29	3	90.6%	2.51	0	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BUF at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	DET
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.88
1	DET	9	2	0.95
2	BUF	15	0	0.86
2	DET	9	0	0.67
3	BUF	14	0	0.74
3	DET	17	1	1.60
4	BUF	1	0	0.03
4	DET	4	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8