Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-11-06 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 58.6%

VGK: 41.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.11

VGK: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

MTL

J. Allen

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	18	13	5	72.2%	2.78	2	-2.22
VGK	R. Lehner	38	36	2	94.7%	3.22	1	1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	25	1	1.77
1	VGK	1	0	0.01
2	MTL	11	0	0.59
2	VGK	12	0	0.62
3	MTL	13	0	0.86
3	VGK	12	2	2.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0