Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2021-11-06 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 45.1%
TBL: 54.9%
Expected Goals
OTT: 2.89
TBL: 3.22
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
M. Murray
TBL
B. Elliott
| Stat | OTT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | M. Murray | 33 | 28 | 5 | 84.8% | 4.10 | 1 | -0.90 |
| TBL | B. Elliott | 27 | 24 | 3 | 88.9% | 3.14 | 3 | 0.14 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TBL: 7-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | OTT 6 - 2 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-28 | TBL 4 - 2 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OTT | 16 | 2 | 1.53 |
| 1 | TBL | 10 | 0 | 0.48 |
| 2 | OTT | 5 | 1 | 0.70 |
| 2 | TBL | 23 | 0 | 1.27 |
| 3 | OTT | 12 | 0 | 0.90 |
| 3 | TBL | 15 | 1 | 2.35 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 54.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 3.2
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