Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-11-06 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild (SO)

Win Probability

PIT: 43.4%

MIN: 56.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.05

MIN: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

MIN

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	44	37	7	84.1%	5.77	4	-1.23
MIN	C. Talbot	43	37	6	86.0%	5.13	2	-0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs MIN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	0	0.95
1	MIN	16	1	1.41
2	PIT	18	0	1.12
2	MIN	16	0	0.78
3	PIT	13	0	1.11
3	MIN	14	0	0.97
4	PIT	4	0	0.51
4	MIN	5	0	0.38
5	PIT	4	2	1.44
5	MIN	4	3	2.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4