Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-11-06 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 61.5%

PHI: 38.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.67

PHI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

V. Vanecek

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	32	30	2	93.8%	2.10	1	0.10
PHI	M. Jones	32	31	1	96.9%	2.96	0	1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs PHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.47
1	PHI	16	0	0.68
2	WSH	15	0	1.02
2	PHI	17	1	1.10
3	WSH	20	0	1.48
3	PHI	9	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1