Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2021-11-06 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 46.8%

COL: 53.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.99

COL: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	36	34	2	94.4%	3.46	1	1.46
COL	D. Kuemper	42	38	4	90.5%	3.83	3	-0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CBJ at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	COL 4 - 0 CBJ	COL	COL
2025-10-16	CBJ 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-03	CBJ 3 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-10-12	COL 4 - 6 CBJ	CBJ	COL
2024-04-01	CBJ 4 - 1 COL	CBJ	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	10	0	0.51
1	COL	16	0	0.93
2	CBJ	20	1	1.55
2	COL	14	0	1.05
3	CBJ	18	2	1.77
3	COL	16	1	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4