Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-11-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

WSH: 59.8%

BUF: 40.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.67

BUF: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

V. Vanecek

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	28	25	3	89.3%	2.33	1	-0.67
BUF	D. Tokarski	30	25	5	83.3%	3.07	1	-1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • WSH at home vs BUF: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	WSH
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	0	1.02
1	BUF	7	0	0.18
2	WSH	13	0	0.77
2	BUF	17	0	0.82
3	WSH	13	1	1.29
3	BUF	16	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0