Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2021-11-09 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

BOS: 52.1%

OTT: 47.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.32

OTT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

OTT

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	27	25	2	92.6%	2.29	0	0.29
OTT	M. Murray	36	33	3	91.7%	2.07	1	-0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BOS at home vs OTT: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	BOS
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	21	0	0.70
1	OTT	14	0	1.11
2	BOS	18	1	1.04
2	OTT	9	0	0.43
3	BOS	8	0	0.33
3	OTT	14	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1