Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2021-11-09 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 44.9%

PIT: 55.1%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.90

PIT: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

CHI

M. Fleury

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	M. Fleury	46	44	2	95.7%	3.84	3	1.84
PIT	Tristan Jarry	35	31	4	88.6%	4.55	2	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CHI at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	CHI
2024-02-15	CHI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	17	0	1.03
1	PIT	13	1	0.91
2	CHI	14	0	0.99
2	PIT	17	1	1.10
3	CHI	5	0	0.40
3	PIT	25	1	1.46
4	CHI	4	0	0.47
4	PIT	3	0	0.22
5	CHI	3	2	1.66
5	PIT	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4