San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-11-09 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 60.3%

SJS: 39.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.48

SJS: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

CGY

J. Markstrom

SJS

A. Hill

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	26	22	4	84.6%	3.45	4	-0.55
SJS	A. Hill	38	37	1	97.4%	3.90	2	2.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs SJS: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.50
1	SJS	10	1	0.67
2	CGY	32	2	2.77
2	SJS	12	0	0.86
3	CGY	12	0	0.64
3	SJS	21	3	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1