Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-11-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 39.5%

SEA: 60.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.63

SEA: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

R. Lehner

SEA

C. Driedger

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	27	25	2	92.6%	2.85	3	0.85
SEA	C. Driedger	23	19	4	82.6%	3.12	4	-0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • VGK at home vs SEA: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	VGK 4 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-09	SEA 4 - 3 VGK	SEA	VGK
2026-01-31	VGK 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	VGK
2025-10-11	SEA 2 - 1 VGK	SEA	VGK
2025-04-10	VGK 2 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	0.54
1	SEA	9	2	0.96
2	VGK	5	0	0.27
2	SEA	14	1	1.10
3	VGK	13	4	2.32
3	SEA	12	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3