Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2021-11-11 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 63.6%
EDM: 36.4%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.60
EDM: 3.06
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
L. Ullmark
EDM
M. Koskinen
| Stat | BOS | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | L. Ullmark | 28 | 23 | 5 | 82.1% | 3.38 | 1 | -1.62 |
| EDM | M. Koskinen | 29 | 26 | 3 | 89.7% | 2.53 | 1 | -0.47 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs EDM: 0-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | EDM 2 - 6 BOS | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-12-18 | BOS 1 - 3 EDM | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-01-07 | BOS 0 - 4 EDM | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-12-19 | EDM 3 - 2 BOS | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-03-05 | BOS 1 - 2 EDM | EDM | EDM |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOS | 11 | 0 | 0.69 |
| 1 | EDM | 11 | 0 | 0.65 |
| 2 | BOS | 13 | 1 | 0.93 |
| 2 | EDM | 11 | 0 | 0.78 |
| 3 | BOS | 16 | 0 | 0.91 |
| 3 | EDM | 15 | 1 | 1.95 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.6 - 3.1
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