Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-11-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

MTL: 53.2%

CGY: 46.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.16

CGY: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

J. Allen

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	26	24	2	92.3%	1.49	0	-0.51
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	24	4	85.7%	2.59	1	-1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.84
1	CGY	16	0	0.67
2	MTL	14	0	0.79
2	CGY	11	0	0.50
3	MTL	10	1	0.96
3	CGY	7	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5