Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-11-11 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 54.4%

WSH: 45.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.71

WSH: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

DET

T. Greiss

WSH

Z. Fucale

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	T. Greiss	29	27	2	93.1%	2.63	0	0.63
WSH	Z. Fucale	21	21	0	100.0%	2.13	1	2.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs WSH: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	DET
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	19	1	1.49
1	WSH	14	0	0.90
2	DET	8	0	0.46
2	WSH	13	0	0.90
3	DET	7	0	0.18
3	WSH	16	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.7 - 3.0