Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-11-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Florida Panthers (SO)

Win Probability

PIT: 50.8%

FLA: 49.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.28

FLA: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	42	39	3	92.9%	4.35	1	1.35
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	35	31	4	88.6%	5.31	3	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs FLA: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	1	1.52
1	FLA	17	0	1.12
2	PIT	11	0	0.79
2	FLA	14	0	0.98
3	PIT	13	0	1.00
3	FLA	19	0	0.88
4	PIT	2	0	0.25
4	FLA	3	0	0.28
5	PIT	4	2	1.76
5	FLA	4	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2