Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2021-11-11 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 7 - 1 Vancouver Canucks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 53.3%
VAN: 46.7%
Expected Goals
COL: 2.89
VAN: 2.85
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
D. Kuemper
VAN
Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | COL | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.905 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 2.72 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | D. Kuemper | 22 | 21 | 1 | 95.5% | 1.39 | 0 | 0.39 |
| VAN | Thatcher Demko | 35 | 28 | 7 | 80.0% | 3.30 | 2 | -3.70 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • COL at home vs VAN: 4-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | COL 6 - 8 VAN | VAN | COL |
| 2025-12-02 | COL 3 - 1 VAN | COL | COL |
| 2025-11-09 | VAN 4 - 5 COL | COL | COL |
| 2025-04-10 | COL 1 - 4 VAN | VAN | COL |
| 2025-02-04 | VAN 3 - 0 COL | VAN | COL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COL | 15 | 1 | 1.21 |
| 1 | VAN | 6 | 0 | 0.47 |
| 2 | COL | 18 | 0 | 1.07 |
| 2 | VAN | 12 | 0 | 0.40 |
| 3 | COL | 14 | 1 | 1.02 |
| 3 | VAN | 12 | 0 | 0.52 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 7 - 1 Vancouver Canucks
Expected: 2.9 - 2.8
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