Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-11-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 56.4%

CGY: 43.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.67

CGY: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

J. Campbell

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	31	30	1	96.8%	2.39	1	1.39
CGY	Dan Vladar	37	35	2	94.6%	4.05	1	2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TOR at home vs CGY: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	1.10
1	CGY	12	1	0.94
2	TOR	19	1	1.65
2	CGY	14	0	0.44
3	TOR	13	0	0.82
3	CGY	13	0	0.76
4	TOR	4	0	0.47
4	CGY	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2