Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-11-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 46.6%

PIT: 53.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.93

PIT: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	31	28	3	90.3%	3.08	2	0.08
PIT	C. DeSmith	24	18	6	75.0%	3.07	3	-2.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • OTT at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	7	1	0.49
1	PIT	16	1	1.35
2	OTT	21	0	1.34
2	PIT	15	0	0.63
3	OTT	7	2	1.24
3	PIT	19	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3