Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-11-13 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

DET: 51.8%

MTL: 48.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.21

MTL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	37	35	2	94.6%	2.64	1	0.64
MTL	J. Allen	33	30	3	90.9%	2.63	0	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • DET at home vs MTL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.84
1	MTL	11	1	0.71
2	DET	21	0	1.03
2	MTL	15	0	0.90
3	DET	12	0	0.71
3	MTL	17	0	0.91
4	DET	1	0	0.04
4	MTL	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8