Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-13 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Florida Panthers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 42.9%

FLA: 57.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.95

FLA: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	26	2	92.9%	2.92	1	0.92
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	24	21	3	87.5%	2.83	0	-0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TBL at home vs FLA: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	1.14
1	FLA	10	0	0.77
2	TBL	10	0	0.56
2	FLA	14	0	1.04
3	TBL	9	0	0.86
3	FLA	14	1	0.87
4	TBL	2	0	0.28
4	FLA	2	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2