Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-11-13 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 46.4%

VAN: 53.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.93

VAN: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

R. Lehner

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	43	39	4	90.7%	5.04	2	1.04
VAN	Thatcher Demko	39	32	7	82.1%	4.27	3	-2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • VGK at home vs VAN: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	1	0.99
1	VAN	12	0	1.09
2	VGK	19	0	1.44
2	VAN	19	1	2.22
3	VGK	18	2	1.84
3	VAN	22	1	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1