Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2021-11-14 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

BOS: 53.1%

MTL: 46.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.14

MTL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	27	2	93.1%	2.19	1	0.19
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	41	36	5	87.8%	4.02	2	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BOS at home vs MTL: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	0	1.09
1	MTL	15	1	1.00
2	BOS	22	1	1.72
2	MTL	13	0	0.86
3	BOS	11	1	1.21
3	MTL	10	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0