Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-11-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

WSH: 58.0%

PIT: 42.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.22

PIT: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

V. Vanecek

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	25	24	1	96.0%	1.50	0	0.50
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	26	6	81.2%	3.13	2	-2.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs PIT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.55
1	PIT	11	0	0.74
2	WSH	20	1	1.57
2	PIT	13	0	0.45
3	WSH	14	1	1.00
3	PIT	10	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1