New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TBL: 55.8%

NYI: 44.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.48

NYI: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	25	1	96.2%	2.96	1	1.96
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	28	24	4	85.7%	3.02	0	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NYI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.97
1	NYI	9	0	0.83
2	TBL	8	0	0.31
2	NYI	15	1	1.51
3	TBL	18	0	1.73
3	NYI	12	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.5 - 3.1