Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-11-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 63.8%

BUF: 36.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.35

BUF: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	19	17	2	89.5%	1.71	0	-0.29
BUF	D. Tokarski	46	45	1	97.8%	4.21	1	3.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs BUF: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	0	1.36
1	BUF	13	0	0.73
2	PIT	14	0	0.87
2	BUF	8	0	0.68
3	PIT	23	1	1.97
3	BUF	3	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9