Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2021-11-17 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

VAN: 46.4%

COL: 53.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.96

COL: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	30	26	4	86.7%	2.75	2	-1.25
COL	D. Kuemper	34	32	2	94.1%	2.69	1	0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VAN at home vs COL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	COL 6 - 8 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-12-02	COL 3 - 1 VAN	COL	COL
2025-11-09	VAN 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-10	COL 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-02-04	VAN 3 - 0 COL	VAN	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	15	1	1.14
1	COL	17	0	0.88
2	VAN	16	0	0.84
2	COL	12	0	0.56
3	VAN	12	0	0.72
3	COL	14	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6