Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-11-18 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 5 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

BUF: 46.0%

CGY: 54.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.90

CGY: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

D. Tokarski

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	33	28	5	84.8%	2.51	0	-2.49
CGY	J. Markstrom	27	27	0	100.0%	1.50	0	1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	BUF	8	0.24
1	CGY	19	1.01
2	BUF	12	0.54
2	CGY	12	0.62
3	BUF	13	0.72
3	CGY	14	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3