New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-11-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TOR: 70.9%

NYR: 29.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.64

NYR: 1.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

J. Campbell

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	28	27	1	96.4%	2.31	0	1.31
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	30	28	2	93.3%	3.36	0	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	9	0.53
1	NYR	12	0.72
2	TOR	21	1.68
2	NYR	11	0.70
3	TOR	18	1.15
3	NYR	18	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.6 - 1.9