Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2021-11-18 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 46.3%

WPG: 53.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.37

WPG: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	49	48	1	98.0%	3.60	1	2.60
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	32	3	91.4%	4.18	2	1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • EDM at home vs WPG: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	WPG 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-29	WPG 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-06	EDM 6 - 2 WPG	EDM	EDM
2025-04-13	WPG 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-20	EDM 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.74
1	WPG	18	0	1.22
2	EDM	14	0	0.98
2	WPG	17	0	0.74
3	EDM	19	0	0.87
3	WPG	13	1	1.03
4	EDM	1	0	0.13
4	WPG	9	0	0.50
5	EDM	3	2	1.46
5	WPG	2	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3