Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-11-18 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 44.6%

DET: 55.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.22

DET: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

R. Lehner

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	28	26	2	92.9%	2.84	0	0.84
DET	T. Greiss	32	27	5	84.4%	3.29	2	-1.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	VGK
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	1	1.07
1	DET	16	0	1.18
2	VGK	17	0	1.26
2	DET	11	0	0.85
3	VGK	12	1	0.97
3	DET	8	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1