New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-02-20 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 New York Rangers

Win Probability

OTT: 47.9%

NYR: 52.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.91

NYR: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	33	31	2	93.9%	2.57	2	0.57
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	30	29	1	96.7%	2.32	0	1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	1.01
1	NYR	13	0	0.71
2	OTT	11	0	0.49
2	NYR	16	1	1.12
3	OTT	17	0	0.81
3	NYR	12	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1