New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-20 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 50.7%

NJD: 49.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.30

NJD: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NJD

M. Blackwood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	22	5	81.5%	4.71	3	-0.29
NJD	M. Blackwood	34	31	3	91.2%	4.33	1	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs NJD: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	0.99
1	NJD	8	0	0.55
2	TBL	14	0	0.83
2	NJD	18	0	1.49
3	TBL	17	1	2.51
3	NJD	13	3	2.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2