Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2021-11-20 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 62.7%

CGY: 37.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.25

CGY: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	31	26	5	83.9%	3.26	3	-1.74
CGY	J. Markstrom	36	34	2	94.4%	4.66	4	2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs CGY: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	CGY
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	CGY
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	3	2.57
1	CGY	10	1	0.94
2	NYI	14	1	1.04
2	CGY	16	0	1.07
3	NYI	16	0	1.04
3	CGY	10	2	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2