Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-11-20 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 57.2%

BOS: 42.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.96

BOS: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

M. Jones

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	44	39	5	88.6%	3.22	2	-1.78
BOS	L. Ullmark	31	29	2	93.5%	2.49	1	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PHI at home vs BOS: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.73
1	BOS	26	0	1.26
2	PHI	13	1	1.26
2	BOS	13	1	0.88
3	PHI	14	0	0.51
3	BOS	14	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5