St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-11-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 43.8%

STL: 56.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.74

STL: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 53%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	36	35	1	97.2%	2.59	1	1.59
STL	Jordan Binnington	33	29	4	87.9%	4.77	8	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs STL: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	STL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL
2025-03-02	DAL 6 - 3 STL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	2	1.54
1	STL	12	0	0.52
2	DAL	17	3	1.50
2	STL	14	1	1.07
3	DAL	7	3	1.73
3	STL	15	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3