Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-11-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 45.1%

CBJ: 54.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.01

CBJ: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 56%

VGK

L. Brossoit

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	29	27	2	93.1%	2.67	2	0.67
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	35	32	3	91.4%	3.95	2	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VGK at home vs CBJ: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	VGK 5 - 3 CBJ	VGK	VGK
2025-12-13	CBJ 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-13	CBJ 0 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-30	VGK 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	VGK
2024-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 CBJ	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.70
1	CBJ	18	1	1.19
2	VGK	19	0	1.34
2	CBJ	11	0	0.56
3	VGK	17	2	1.91
3	CBJ	13	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0