Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-21 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Minnesota Wild (SO)

Win Probability

TBL: 52.5%

MIN: 47.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.97

MIN: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

B. Elliott

MIN

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	34	30	4	88.2%	2.51	0	-1.49
MIN	K. Kahkonen	25	20	5	80.0%	3.80	2	-1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs MIN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.69
1	MIN	17	0	1.11
2	TBL	14	0	0.86
2	MIN	16	0	0.57
3	TBL	5	1	1.06
3	MIN	8	0	0.43
4	TBL	3	0	0.30
4	MIN	4	0	0.28
5	TBL	3	1	0.88
5	MIN	3	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0