Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2021-11-22 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 51.8%

PIT: 48.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.36

PIT: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	36	33	3	91.7%	3.79	1	0.79
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	30	1	96.8%	3.02	1	2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	1.02
1	PIT	6	0	0.45
2	WPG	21	1	1.51
2	PIT	18	0	1.69
3	WPG	8	0	0.49
3	PIT	22	1	1.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8