Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2021-11-22 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

COL: 53.8%

OTT: 46.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.22

OTT: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

D. Kuemper

OTT

F. Gustavsson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	21	16	5	76.2%	1.03	0	-3.97
OTT	F. Gustavsson	40	33	7	82.5%	4.23	3	-2.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs OTT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	13	0	0.83
1	OTT	7	0	0.51
2	COL	28	1	1.98
2	OTT	5	0	0.22
3	COL	13	2	1.42
3	OTT	10	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2