Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TBL: 58.7%

PHI: 41.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.20

PHI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	34	0	100.0%	2.43	1	2.43
PHI	C. Hart	35	31	4	88.6%	3.88	1	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs PHI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.49
1	PHI	15	0	0.79
2	TBL	28	1	2.25
2	PHI	11	0	0.63
3	TBL	20	0	1.14
3	PHI	16	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0