New York Rangers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2021-11-24 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 57.4%

NYR: 42.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.11

NYR: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	21	17	4	81.0%	2.40	0	-1.60
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	21	20	1	95.2%	2.18	2	1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYI at home vs NYR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.66
1	NYR	11	0	0.81
2	NYI	10	2	1.15
2	NYR	10	0	0.77
3	NYI	5	0	0.36
3	NYR	10	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0