Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-11-24 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 52.8%

MTL: 47.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.02

MTL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

I. Samsonov

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	28	25	3	89.3%	3.33	2	0.33
MTL	J. Allen	34	28	6	82.4%	3.01	1	-2.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • WSH at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	25	1	1.77
1	MTL	7	0	0.58
2	WSH	18	0	0.68
2	MTL	13	2	1.88
3	WSH	11	0	0.56
3	MTL	17	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2