Edmonton Oilers at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2021-11-24 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 60.7%

EDM: 39.3%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.09

EDM: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

ARI

S. Wedgewood

EDM

M. Koskinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	S. Wedgewood	44	39	5	88.6%	5.36	2	0.36
EDM	M. Koskinen	27	24	3	88.9%	1.81	0	-1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs EDM: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-17	ARI 5 - 2 EDM	ARI	EDM
2024-04-12	EDM 2 - 3 ARI	ARI	EDM
2024-02-19	ARI 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2023-03-27	ARI 4 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2023-03-22	EDM 4 - 3 ARI	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	18	0	1.06
1	EDM	15	0	1.13
2	ARI	6	0	0.20
2	EDM	20	1	1.63
3	ARI	10	0	0.54
3	EDM	22	1	2.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8