Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-11-26 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 47.6%

MTL: 52.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.12

MTL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

BUF

D. Tokarski

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	26	25	1	96.2%	2.71	1	1.71
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	39	35	4	89.7%	3.77	1	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • BUF at home vs MTL: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	0.86
1	MTL	21	0	1.24
2	BUF	18	1	1.75
2	MTL	6	1	0.50
3	BUF	18	0	1.17
3	MTL	13	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4