Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-26 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Seattle Kraken

Win Probability

TBL: 51.2%

SEA: 48.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.92

SEA: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	17	17	0	100.0%	1.59	1	1.59
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	26	23	3	88.5%	2.53	0	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs SEA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	1.43
1	SEA	7	0	0.44
2	TBL	8	0	0.59
2	SEA	8	1	0.71
3	TBL	11	0	0.51
3	SEA	6	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3