Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-11-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 52.4%

EDM: 47.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.42

EDM: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

R. Lehner

EDM

M. Koskinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	30	27	3	90.0%	2.71	1	-0.29
EDM	M. Koskinen	38	36	2	94.7%	2.73	0	0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	23	0	1.23
1	EDM	16	1	1.32
2	VGK	12	0	0.60
2	EDM	12	0	1.19
3	VGK	14	0	0.90
3	EDM	7	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0