New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-03-17 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

NYR: 42.7%

NYI: 57.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.90

NYI: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	28	26	2	92.9%	3.36	1	1.36
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	29	1	96.7%	2.55	1	1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYR at home vs NYI: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.67
1	NYI	11	1	1.03
2	NYR	12	1	1.10
2	NYI	16	0	1.49
3	NYR	12	0	0.78
3	NYI	12	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3