Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-11-29 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 55.7%

VAN: 44.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.90

VAN: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

MTL

J. Allen

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	42	40	2	95.2%	3.09	2	1.09
VAN	Thatcher Demko	34	33	1	97.1%	2.13	0	1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	VAN
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.67
1	VAN	13	0	0.46
2	MTL	12	0	0.64
2	VAN	23	0	1.00
3	MTL	16	0	0.82
3	VAN	12	2	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1