Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2021-11-30 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 47.6%

TBL: 52.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.56

TBL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 54%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	35	32	3	91.4%	3.51	1	0.51
TBL	B. Elliott	36	32	4	88.9%	3.86	1	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	18	0	1.00
1	TBL	20	1	1.23
2	STL	16	0	1.02
2	TBL	10	0	0.68
3	STL	13	0	1.18
3	TBL	14	0	0.81
4	STL	0	0	0.00
4	TBL	5	0	0.62
5	STL	3	1	0.67
5	TBL	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3